Category Archives: Projections

Some Category Valuation Observations for Roto Pricing

Rudy Gamble is running a series on player valuation over at Razzball.com, and he has lots of interesting things to say. One of the reasons for that is because he’s inquiring. He’s doing that most interesting thing, to me anyway, of trying to figure it out in public. The piece (more…)

Finding Undervalued Pitchers: More Data, Fewer Undervalued Pitchers

I’ve been writing this week about some comparisons I was making with 2013 pitching metrics and 2014 data.

One strong takeaway was an indication that fantasy owners weren’t valuing pitchers with low walk rates enough. Details here.

(more…)

The FanGraphs Auction Calculator

Screenshot 2015-02-24 16.24.48FanGraphs posted a fantasy auction calculator today, or maybe they posted it yesterday. I found it today.

Enter your league parameters and it will give you dollar values for the (more…)

Finding Undervalued Pitchers: SIERA and FIP

Yesterday we ran correlations between various pitching metrics and fantasy baseball profits for pitchers, and found that most of the ways we evaluate pitchers—like strikeouts and ERA—influence a pitcher’s cost so much that they don’t help us predict profits.

But we did discover (more…)

Finding Undervalued Pitchers: Walk Rate

After I finished my look at correlation between 2013 pitching stats and 2014 fantasy baseball profits, I just had to look at which pitchers might bubble up this year because of their low walk rates last year.

Hisashi Iwakuma, Jordan Zimmerman, Doug Fister, (more…)

The JUNE fantasy baseball earnings report is here!

You can access it here.

You probably knew that the top pitchers of the month were Clayton Kershaw, Felix Hernandez and Masahiro Tanaka, but did you know that three very cheap ptchers finished 9-11? Yes, they would be Jake Arrieta, Sean Doolittle and Danny Duffy.

On the hitting side the (more…)

Rotoman’s Agony: What Am I Supposed to Do With Perfection?

In the last two weeks my Tout Wars NL team has ascended, from 11th place on June 1 to fourth place today (yesterday I was in third).

Then:

Screenshot 2014-06-20 14.35.36

 

Now:

(more…)

Expecting Success: How do the top players rank at the end of April?

Reading Ron Shandler’s story at USA Today yesterday, Fantasy’s First Round Has Been Filled With Busts, I realized in my recent series looking back at how fast starters and slow (more…)

Are Component Pitching Measures Leading Indicators?

I don’t want to dwell on this too much right now, because it will take a lot more work to tease out more meaningful results. And lots of work has been done elsewhere (this is a good place to start), that does a far more comprehensive job than I’m (more…)

Park Factors and Handedness 2013

I’ve been meaning to take a look at special Park Factor situations. Park factors are of interest, of course, because they help us understand which ballparks are easier to hit in (and worse for pitchers) or easiest to pitch in (and worse for hitters).

Take the stats of a team and (more…)