Category Archives: Stat Projections

Are Component Pitching Measures Leading Indicators?

I don’t want to dwell on this too much right now, because it will take a lot more work to tease out more meaningful results. And lots of work has been done elsewhere (this is a good place to start), that does a far more comprehensive job than I’m (more…)

A new project this year: Month by Month Roto Prices

Since April, at the end of each month I’ve been posting roto prices for all players. You can find the end of June prices here. Prices through the end of the year in a spreadsheet are here.

These prices are scaled so that the Top 216 pitchers and (more…)

Blast from the Past: My 1996 Crystal Ball

The first bit of real writing about fantasy baseball I had published was a long story accompanying my baseball projections in the 1996 edition of Peter Golenbock’s How to Win at (more…)

Projections are Not the Same as Prices

Winning at playing fantasy baseball has two obvious components:

1) Good Player Projections, and 2) Accurate Player Pricing.

It is, one assumes, most helpful to have the best projections, because they tell us what players are going to do. The best set of projections would give you the best idea (more…)

What is a projection?

When I was growing up an astrologist named Jeane Dixon was famous because she had predicted that President John F. Kennedy would be assassinated before he actually was. She was a popular author and newspaper columnist who regularly published her predictions of what was to come and many people bought (more…)